While most make a huge deal out of the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline, one of the biggest trades of the year happened yesterday. Given the pitching of the Diamondbacks and their lack of power, Adam Dunn to the Diamondbacks very well could lead the team to the NL West crown and into the NLCS (possibly the World Series too).
But at this moment, all of this is purely speculation.
Our friends at Beyond the Box Score, however, use statistics to break down what the addition of Dunn means for the rest of the season. The short of it is that the addition of Dunn in left field all depends on who he replaces. At this moment, Adam Dunn is projected to hit (by the Marcel projections) .237/.383/.513 the rest of the season, which would create 94.28 runs (which we get by using the widely-used formula). He will replace Conor Jackson, who's holding down left field for Justin Upton (who will return shortly). When Dunn comes in, Jackson will move to first base, which could send Chad Tracy to the bench.
The problem with this, however, is that Tracy is a very good player. He is projected to hit .280/.344/.464 the rest of the season, which is worth 81.67 runs created. So, in the grand scheme that is the remainder of the Diamondbacks' season, if Dunn replaces Tracy, that's really only one win (not that significant of a number, considering the Diamondbacks gave up three minor leaguers).
But the most interesting thing is factoring in the season-ending injury to 2B Orlando Hudson, and his replacement, Augie Ojeda. Using the same Marcel projections that BTBS uses, Ojeda is projected to hit .263/.347/.371. This is worth 44.33 runs, a number that is rather bad. But what the Diamondbacks could do to get their best offensive lineup out on the field (except, of course, on the days that the team needs Ojeda's solid defense when Brandon Webb starts) is to place regular third baseman Mark Reynolds at 2B (which BTBS believes he can play because of his shortstop background).
If Reynolds replaces Ojeda at second base, and allows Tracy to move to third, Dunn's 94.28 runs created, in essence, replaces Ojeda's 44.33. This is worth roughly four wins, which is an absolutely gigantic number down the stretch of the season.
But this, of course, all depends on if the Diamondbacks are willing to sacrifice defense for hitting. But, considering that they just traded for Adam Dunn, this seems like a reasonable assumption.
The Florida Marlins have miraculously stayed in contention throughout the year, even though their pitching staff was in shambles early in the season. But now, they have 4 out of 5 starters who made up the outstanding 2006 rotation back from various injuries, but still aren't favored to win the division. The reason is that their lineup has been in a slump since the All-Star break. The main culprits have been Hanley Ramirez (.217/.347/.361) and Dan Uggla (.179/.273/.333). But, in attempting to summarize how the team will fair the rest of the season, The Hardball Times takes the viewpoint that the team's slump is nothing permanent, and comes to the conclusion that the Marlins will be a force to be reckoned with until the last day of the season. Of course, this could all change if the Phillies or Mets go on a run and pull away from the rest of the division (something both are capable of doing).
Last week, Mark Buerhle made some rather controversial comments about Gavin Floyd being a question mark down the stretch of the season for the White Sox. The reason is because of how the veteran thinks Floyd will deal with the pressure. In addition to the mental hurdles that Floyd faces, The Hardball Times believes that Floyd is on "borrowed time," after breaking down his five pitches in their Anatomy of a Player piece.
Their explanation of his pitches leave the reader to draw a similar conclusion as well. Floyd throws a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball (which can also be classified as a sinker), 1-7 curveball, changeup and slider.
- Floyd doesn't throw the four-seamer all that hard (92 MPH), which means that it's difficult to throw it past people's bats. Specifically, it can't be used as an out pitch (more on this later).
- His two-seamer is technically a sinker, and at 86 MPH, is an extremely hard one. Floyd has nine inches of movement on the pitch, so it does have that significant drop that often throws off right-handed hitters. But, unlike prolific sinkerballers (Brandon Webb, Derek Lowe, etc.), Floyd doesn't have enough sink on the pitch to consistently force groundballs. And the other troubling thing with this pitch is that he can rarely throw it against lefties, because it tails away from them (over the plate or out of the strike zone).
- Floyd's out pitch, as White Sox fans can attest to, has been his curveball throughout the season. And this is his best, and most unique pitch. At 86 MPH, Floyd throws the curveball harder than most everyone in the league (Ben Sheets being one of the exceptions). And while it's a very effective pitch, The Hardball Times is worried that hitters will start to pick up on it because it starts on a different level than the oft-used fastball.
- The last two pitches in Floyd's arsenal are works in process. The slider has similar movement to a typical cutter, but is only 86 MPH, and actually breaks in to right handed pitchers (which, if you've seen Mariano Rivera/Brad Lidge pitch, you know is a bad thing). Taking into account the speed and the movement, it's safe to say that this is a terrible pitch. The changeup, similarly, is also rather ineffective. It is only a nine MPH drop from his fastballs, which many pitchers get away with, but Floyd does not throw it with two strikes. Meaning that hitters can sit on the curve and fastball when down in the count. He also struggles to get it over the plate.
Like I said last week when writing about the Buerhle comments - be sure to keep all of these things in mind for the rest of the season. And also remember that Gavin Floyd is young, meaning that he still has time to improve the last three pitches (curveball, changeup and slider).
After Ken Griffey Jr. was traded to the White Sox, the question that was on everyone's mind (and blogs) was: How is the oft-injured, 38-year-old going to play centerfield at the level he did in Seattle. Well, the verdict is in. Griffey won't be playing center as well as he did in Seattle - not even close.
Probably the most shocking numbers that I've seen throughout the year is the Cy Young-caliber season that Mike Mussina has put together. Now granted, this has been helped by Barry Bonds and his bloated OBP have been ignored throughout the season by every team in the game (which is especially puzzling, considering that once Jason Giambi started producing, Yankees fans welcomed him back with open arms) But hey, that's the world we live in right?.
But Mussina is having a truly great year. He earned his 15th win Thursday night, and currently has a 3.44 ERA. Now, the interesting thing is to look at why Mussina has experienced more success this year. The Hardball Times dove into this today - and their results are very interesting. They contend that because Mussina has lowered his BB/9 (from 2.1 to 1.3) and raised his K/9 (2.6 to 4.7), he has experienced a great deal of success. There's more to the argument, which is worth checking out. Specifically, THT talks about the role the Yankees' infield defense has had on Mussina's performance over the last two years.
