A couple weeks ago we wrote about the official elimination of the Mariners and Nationals in Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds (whose formula is statistically solid). By using that same formula, one can see that the Yankees currently have a four percent chance of making the playoffs (which, obviously includes the wild card). Granted, this doesn't include the fact that Carl Pavano, Hideki Matsui and Phil Hughes are returning soon, but it still looks bleak for the Yankees.
Throughout the Manny Ramirez-to-the-Marlins rumors, many without knowledge of the free agent compensation system didn't understand why the Marlins would acquire such a high-priced player. Well, if they would have got him, Florida would have let Manny walk at the end of the season and received at least two first round draft picks. This system, USS Mariner argues, is broken and doesn't help small market, minor league teams.
Nearly every September, when there's typically less than 12 teams in the hunt for a postseason position, there's usually at least one team saying that another team is tanking. This happens more in basketball, but is also relevant in baseball. Ubiquitous, over at baseball fever, ran the numbers (albiet, in a very limited sample size), and found that contending teams facing a team who's out of it actually have a lower winning percentage (.611) than what they're expected to have (.655).
Though they already had the best record in the major leagues, the Angels have benefited a great deal with the addition of Mark Teixeira. Over his first 15 games with the team, Teixeira is hitting .375/.471/.625. In addition, over that time, he is handedly leading the team in Win Probability.
This season, the White Sox are in first place because they do one thing extremely well. They are the best in the league at hitting home runs. Since they play in US Cellular Field, where the long ball flies out of the field, GM Kenny Williams has brought together a mix of players who have high OBPs, and hit a lot of HRs. That's why the White Sox are tied for first place. Their team is built to play at US Cellular and no where else (26-33 record on the road).
